Oregon State University

Awards Issued Prior to January 20, 2025, Were Funded Under Previous Administrations and May Not Reflect the Priorities and Policies of the Current Administration. Invasive Species Have Been an Increasingly Challenging and Expensive Threat to U.s. Agriculture in Recent Decades. Tools and Technologies That Can Help Detect Invasive Pests Are Urgently Needed Because Early Detection and Rapid Response Practices Are the Most Cost-effective and Efficient Method to Reduce These Threats. Our Project Will Provide Science-based Forecasts of When Pests Are Active - Termed Phenology -- and Where the Pests Are Likely to Be Found in the Conterminous U.s to Agricultural Stakeholders. This Information Can Help Ensure That Surveillance Operations Take Place in the Right Place and at the Right Time, Allowing New Pest Populations to Be Detected and Eradicated Before They Can Establish and Spread. for This Project, We Will Produce Regularly Updated (every 2-3 Days) Forecasts of the Potential Distribution and Phenology of Five High-priority Invasive Species; Three Insects (emerald Ash Borer, Spotted Lanternfly, and Asian Giant Hornet), One Plant Disease Complex (brown Rot of Tree Fruits), and One Weed (cheatgrass). We Will Generate These Forecasts Using Our Existing Modeling Tool Known as DDRP (degree-day, Establishment Risk, and Phenological Event Mapping System). the Specific Objectives of Our Project Are to 1) Extend the DDRP Tool to Include Rainfall and Soil Moisture So That We Can Forecast Pests Whose Activity and Distribution Is Limited by These Factors; 2) Develop Models and Forecasts for Five Invasive Species That Represent Major Biosecurity Threats to U.s. Agricultural Production Systems; and 3) Seek Involvement From Forecast Users to Improve These Products, as Well as Provide Observations of the PESTS' Locations and Timing of Activity to Evaluate Forecast Performance. Expanding the DDRP Tool to Include Moisture Variables Like Precipitation, Relative Humidity and Soil Moisture Will Enable Us to Ultimately Produce Forecasts for a Much Broader Range of Pests Including Plant Diseases, Weeds, and Certain Insects, as Many of These SPECIES' Distribution and Activity Is Limited by Moisture Variables. We Have Comprehensive Extension, Outreach, and Feedback Programs Planned to Maximize Adoption and Implementation of Model Forecasts. Email Newsletters, Webinars, Two Advisory Panels, Recruitment and Support of Citizen Science Data Collection, Usability Product Testing, and Interactive Websites Will All Be Developed in These Communication and Engagement Efforts. the Outcomes of This Project Will Provide Critically Needed Decision Support and Citizen Engagement to Help Rapidly Detect and Respond to a Wide Range of Major Invasive Pest Species Beginning With the Five Focal Species for This Work. End Users Can Use Forecasts for the Present-day or Near Future to Help Make Tactical (within-season) Decisions, or Forecasts for the More-distant Future for Help With Strategic (long-term) Decisions. the Long-range Benefits Resulting From This Project Will Include 1) Reduced Expenses Involved With Detecting and Responding to the Target Invasive Pests, 2) Greater Sustainability of Crop, Tree, Horticulture, and Livestock Production, 3) Increased Security of the NATION'S Supply of Food, Forage, Timber, and Horticultural Products, 4) Support of Efforts to Conserve and Protect Natural Resources Including Native Ecosystems, and 5) Protection of Life and Property From Pest-driven Events Such as Wildfires and Massive Tree Die-offs.